Thursday Night Football: A Run-Heavy Rivalry and a Punting Party

Patriots and Jets match up on Prime Video

Get your popcorn and a good pillow ready, because the New England Patriots (1-1) and New York Jets (1-1) are facing off on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 3. It’s bound to be an exhilarating display of... well, punting. The Jets are favored by six points, and the over/under is set at a thrilling 38.5, so brace yourself for a defensive struggle that could double as a yoga class for anyone hoping to stay awake.

Ground and Pound or Just Grounded?

The Patriots have embraced a run-heavy approach this season under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. With a Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) ranking of 25th in the league, it’s clear New England’s playbook reads more like a recipe for ground beef than a strategic NFL offense. Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to shoulder the load as the Patriots rely on a six-lineman formation so often it’s starting to look like they’re prepping for a sumo wrestling match.

Meanwhile, quarterback Jacoby Brissett is being treated more like a Christmas ornament—just there to look nice and avoid getting broken. With 44% of his dropbacks under pressure and an injury-riddled offensive line, it’s no wonder the Patriots would rather keep the ball on the ground. Left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow are out, leaving rookies Caeden Wallace and Michael Jordan (no, not that one) to hold down the fort. And by “hold down the fort,” I mean hold their breath and hope Brissett isn’t squashed like a pancake by the Jets’ pass rush.

Jets Soar High, but Grounded in Reality

For the Jets, Aaron Rodgers looks to have a more leisurely evening. He’s faced pressure on just 25% of his dropbacks, meaning he’s had plenty of time to decide whether to pass or reminisce about the good old days in Green Bay. Unfortunately, it seems he’s been more interested in the latter, as his completion percentage is 9% lower than expected. That Achilles injury from last season might still be on his mind—or maybe he's just daydreaming about those comfy retiree shoes.

Despite their pass-protection prowess, the Jets will likely keep things conservative, leaning on Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. It’s as if Rodgers is allergic to deep throws—his average intended air yards are the third-lowest in the league. Expect a lot of short passes, quick handoffs, and plenty of time to think about what you could be doing instead of watching this game.

The Pick: Underwhelming and Under 38.5

Both teams seem to love punting almost as much as they love not scoring. The Patriots and Jets rank in the top 10 in punt rate per drive, so expect to see a lot of New England’s Bryce Baringer and New York’s Thomas Morstead exchanging pleasantries from opposite sidelines. Baringer’s been booming it this season, averaging 53.8 yards per punt and pinning teams inside their own 20-yard line on 64% of his punts. Maybe he should get some MVP votes?

With both teams content to trade field position and avoid taking risks, this game is shaping up to be a low-scoring affair. My prediction: the under 38.5 is worth considering, but don’t expect a fireworks show. Instead, settle in for a slow, methodical game where the most exciting action might just be a 67-yard punt. After all, sometimes the safest bet is on boredom.