NFL Player Prop Picks Week 4: Touchdowns, Overs, and Everything You Want to Root For!
NFL Prop bets are my favorite so let’s take a dive into the waters this week for a full slate of games.
We’re talking touchdowns, rushing yards, and betting overs galore! Because let’s be honest, no one enjoys cheering for a kicker to nail a field goal from 50 yards out when we could be screaming for Braelon Allen to bust out a 60-yard run instead. Our NFL experts have assembled a buffet of tantalizing prop bets, covering seven games and featuring some of the most talked-about players in the betting and fantasy world. If you've been following the NFL this season, you'll recognize the names we're betting on: Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones, and Braelon Allen to name a few. But there's one name we’re fading hard—Anthony Richardson. Sorry, rook, but you’re facing the NFL’s top defense. Let's get into it.
Kyren Williams, the Rams' TD Machine 🏈💥
Kyren Williams is the Rams’ answer to, “What happens when we lose our top receivers?” In case you’ve been living under a rock, Kyren Williams has taken the Rams' offense by storm, scoring 20 touchdowns in just 15 games. Yes, you read that right—20 touchdowns! It’s like he’s allergic to not scoring.
This week, the Rams face the Chicago Bears' defense, which has the consistency of wet paper. Sure, it might seem like a tough matchup, but when you’re Kyren Williams, tough defenses are just speed bumps on your way to the end zone. With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out, Williams is the Rams' go-to guy. I mean, who else is gonna do it? Sean McVay?
Odds of him scoring are set at -110, and frankly, this bet feels like finding money under your couch cushions. He’s got a 65% chance of scoring, so you do the math. (Actually, let’s skip the math and just cash in.)
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD Scorer (-110)
Braelon Allen—Jets’ Secret Weapon ✈️
Everyone loves talking about Aaron Rodgers and Breece Hall, but let’s not forget about rookie Braelon Allen. This guy’s been quietly putting in work, and by work, I mean averaging 5.1 yards per carry. In his last game, he logged 55 yards on just 11 carries. Not bad for a guy still figuring out which way to run.
With Hall as the 1A, Allen’s the 1B, which is fancy talk for "he's getting the ball more." The Jets are set to face the Broncos, who have a defense that's been about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. With Allen’s rushing total sitting at a modest 33.5 yards, you’d be crazy not to hammer the over.
Pick: Braelon Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Aaron Jones—Back for Revenge 😤
Revenge is a dish best served cold, and Aaron Jones is ready to serve it up in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. After being ousted for Josh Jacobs, Jones has been tearing it up for the Vikings, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. He’s rushed for over 90 yards in two of his last three games and tacked on 97 receiving yards because why not?
The Packers’ defense? They’ve been trampled on by running backs like it’s a Black Friday sale. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor both put up over 100 yards against them, and now it’s Jones’ turn. Add in the fact that this is a revenge game, and you’ve got a recipe for fantasy and betting glory.
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Andy Dalton—The Red Rifle Reloads 🎯
Andy Dalton is back, baby! The Red Rifle came out slinging last week, racking up 319 yards, three touchdowns, and a passer rating so high you’d think he was playing Madden on rookie mode. Bryce Young who?
Dalton completed 26 passes last week, and he’s got a solid chance to do it again this week. Why? His offensive line is basically a brick wall—they allowed just four pressures last game. If Dalton has time to make a sandwich in the pocket, he’s definitely got time to throw a bunch of completions. Lock in the over on this one and watch Dalton dink and dunk his way to victory.
Pick: Andy Dalton Over 21.5 Completions (+100)
Anthony Richardson—The Fade of the Week 🛑
Cue the sad trombone. Anthony Richardson’s rookie season has been… let’s just say it’s not great. He’s completing less than 50% of his passes, has thrown six interceptions, and is going up against a Steelers defense that makes quarterbacks break out in a cold sweat.
With Pittsburgh already snatching four picks this season, I’m betting they’ll add another one this week. Richardson is under constant pressure, and the Steelers' defense is probably already circling his name in their playbooks. Bet on Richardson to throw an INT and don’t look back.
Pick: Anthony Richardson To Throw an INT (-135)
Rashee Rice—The Mahomes Connection 🤝
Rashee Rice might just be the unsung hero of Kansas City’s offense. With a massive 29 targets this season, Rice is becoming one of Patrick Mahomes' favorite weapons, especially with the Chiefs' running game looking more like a leisurely stroll. Oh, and did I mention he’s scored in the last two games?
This week, the Chiefs face the Chargers, who are missing their star safety, Derwin James. Without him, their defense is about as effective as a pizza box in the rain. Rice is primed for another touchdown, and at +160 odds, this one’s worth a sprinkle.
Pick: Rashee Rice Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
Josh Jacobs—Mr. Consistency ⚡
While the Vikings' defense has been formidable, Josh Jacobs has been the epitome of volume and consistency this season. He’s cleared 84 rushing yards in two of his first three games, and the Packers’ run defense isn’t exactly a steel curtain.
Sure, Minnesota’s defense has been stingy, but Jacobs should see plenty of touches. And if there’s one thing you can count on in betting, it’s that volume trumps all. Take the over on Jacobs’ rushing yards and don’t sweat the matchup.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Conclusion: Root for the Touchdowns and Overs! 🎉
Touchdowns? Check. Rushing overs? Double check. This week’s NFL player prop picks have something for every type of bettor. From Kyren Williams' touchdown machine antics to Braelon Allen’s breakout potential, there’s plenty to get excited about. Whether you’re riding the Aaron Jones revenge train or fading Anthony Richardson’s inevitable struggles, we’ve got the picks that’ll keep you glued to the action. So buckle up, place your bets, and get ready for another wild NFL Sunday!